There is a marked slowdown in the supply of real estate in Portugal. At the end of April, 135,000 properties were available for sale, compared to 150,000 at the end of last year, which translates into a drop of 6%.
A drop in the real estate supply which “may cause a rise in prices in the short term, especially in large cities”, warns the real estate consultant Imovendo.
The largest decline in inventory was in apartments, as housing supply remained relatively stable in the first four months of the year.
“We are talking about 15,000 new properties coming on the market in the first four months in the Lisbon metropolitan area, and 44,000 new properties in the Porto metropolitan area, with both metropolitan areas having very similar declines, 15% in Lisbon and 18% in Porto compared to the last quarter of 2021″, underlines Nélio Leão, CEO of Imovendo, in statements to Negócios.
According to the analysis of digital real estate, most businesses are located in areas of large cities, especially in greater Lisbon, and that there are fewer and fewer apartments for sale, second-hand or new.
On the real estate sales side, notes Imovendo, the pace of business is similar to that of 2021, with more than 38,000 properties sold in the first quarter of 2022 and around 13,000 in April 2022, “that is to say that the demand remains active, despite rising prices. and new constraints on real estate loans”.
“There is still a lot of uncertainty about an interest rate hike, which will have to take place either in July and/or September 2022, when the ECB’s executive committee meets the governors of the central banks of the euro zone, but it is estimated that this increase could reach 25 basis points if the same thing happened,” says Nélio Leão.
“Although the recorded inflation rate is already four times higher than that estimated the previous year, an increase in interest rates could lead the euro zone into an unwanted recession”, underlines the CEO of Imovendo.
In addition, concludes Leão, “it is expected that this uncertainty, the war in Ukraine and the resurgence of a wave of covid will affect consumer confidence and that there will be a slowdown in the real estate market, being a market very resilient over the last two years.”.
On the other hand, Imovendo guarantees to have negotiated in the first four months of this year more than 10 million euros of second-hand goods, which represents an increase of 60% compared to the same period last year, and “at the same time, it has saved its clients more than 500,000 euros in real estate commissions, given that the business model differs from current practice in terms of commissions,” explains the digital real estate company.
“Our economic model based on technology and digital allows us to charge only a fixed commission to owners, which makes it a robust model and better prepared to face times of crisis than the traditional real estate model”, defends Nélio. Leão, believing that in the case of Imovendo, “the owners are at the center of the process, which allows them to obtain enormous efficiency gains”.
Expectations for the purchase and sale of properties in the domestic market for the first half of the year are stabilizing compared to the first half of last year, notes Imovendo.
Based on these figures, the real estate company expects to reach 50 million euros of properties negotiated in the first half, in Lisbon and Porto, “that is to say double the number of properties negotiated compared to the first half of 2021”, he concludes.