The IEA – International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday of the risk of the occurrence of the “biggest supply crisis” of oil “in decades” due to the possibility that a significant part of Russian production disappears from the market without OPEC showing any willingness to compensate.
In its monthly report on the oil market, the IEA – International Energy Agency has revised its forecast for world demand for this year down sharply, due to the increase in oil prices caused by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which will reduce economic growth.
Specifically, it slashed 1.3 million barrels per day from the second-quarter consumption projections it made just a month ago, which means 950,000 fewer barrels per day on average over the set of 2022.
This drop means that global demand will remain at 99.7 million barrels per day, 2.1 million more than in 2021.
But beyond these figures, calculated at a time of great uncertainty about the evolution and implications of the war and of enormous volatility, the main message of the agency – which brings together the developed countries which are at the forefront of sanctions against Moscow – east the real danger of oil shortages.
The authors of the study assume that from April, three of Russia’s eight million barrels of daily oil exports will disappear from the market due to sanctions, but also because many of its regular buyers avoid oil Russian.
But things may not end there, so the IEA does not rule out that public condemnation of the Russian attack on Ukraine will further increase this number, given the behavior observed, which has already led to that Russian oil is selling at record prices. reduced prices.
The problem is that, at the same time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies declared at their meeting on the 2nd that there was no shortage of supply and that they did not were planning to release only 400,000 additional barrels per day for the Market.